In one week, two home-sized Bitcoin miners each won a full block reward worth about a quarter of a million dollars. It is a great story. Here is the maths behind it, and what it means for anyone thinking about mining.
By Michal Beno, CEO, OneMiners29 October 2026
Two solo miners each found a Bitcoin block on back-to-back days this week: block 973,262 and block 973,413. Each winner kept the whole reward of about 3.14 BTC, roughly $251,000 at today's price. The second miner ran about 16.2 TH/s. At that size, a block is expected about once every 1,255 years. They got very lucky. Lucky stories are fun, but steady income in Bitcoin mining comes from pools, efficient machines and cheap power.
3.14 BTC
kept by each solo winner
16.2 TH/s
hashrate of the second winner
~1,255 yrs
average wait for a block at that size
1,069 EH/s
whole network, 7-day average
Bitcoin.com News, 27 October 2026; mempool.space and CoinGecko, 27 to 29 October 2026. Odds: OneMiners calculation.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
What happened this week?
Most Bitcoin blocks are found by huge mining pools, which combine the power of thousands of machines. Once in a while, a single small miner working alone wins one instead. That is called solo mining, and this week it happened twice in a row.
The first winner, at block 973,262, used a FutureBit Apollo, a quiet desktop Bitcoin miner made for homes. The newest Apollo III makes up to 18 TH/s in its fastest mode. FutureBit celebrated on X, and said this was only the fourth documented solo block found with one of its Apollo miners.
The second winner, at block 973,413, used Solo CKPool. Despite the name, this is not a normal pool: it gives solo miners shared tools, but the miner who finds the block keeps the reward (minus a small fee). Bitcoin.com reports this miner ran about 16.2 TH/s. For comparison, one Antminer S21 makes 200 TH/s, more than 12 times as much.
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Solo mining's odds make the casino floor look generous.
Bitcoin.com News, 27 October 2026
How solo mining works, in plain English
Every 10 minutes or so, the Bitcoin network picks a winner for the next block. Each Bitcoin miner is making guesses, and each guess is like a lottery ticket. A machine with more hashrate buys more tickets every second. The winner gets the whole block reward: right now 3.125 BTC, plus the fees users paid.
Pool mining
You join thousands of other miners. The pool finds blocks every day and pays you a share that matches your hashrate. Small, steady payouts.
Solo mining
You mine alone. Most days you earn nothing at all. If you ever find a block, you keep almost the entire reward.
Solo pool (like CKPool)
Solo mining with shared software. Same all-or-nothing odds, just easier to set up.
Both ways use the same machine and the same electricity. The only difference is how the luck is shared. Pools spread it out. Solo mining keeps it all in one place.
What were the odds? Let's do the maths
The maths is simpler than it sounds. You only need two numbers: your hashrate and the network's hashrate.
WORKED EXAMPLE 1: THE 16.2 TH/s WINNER
Blocks per year = 6 per hour x 24 x 365 = 52,560
Your share of the network = 16.2 TH/s / 1,069,000,000 TH/s = 1 in 66 million
Average wait = 66 million / 52,560 blocks per year = about 1,255 years
Chance on any one day = about 0.0002%
So this miner was expected to wait about 1,255 years, and it happened this month. That is what luck looks like. Thousands of small miners are pointed at solo pools, so now and then one of them wins, and we all hear about it. We never hear about the thousands who did not.
WORKED EXAMPLE 2: ONE BIG HOSTED MINER, SOLO
Antminer S23 Hyd 3U = 1,160 TH/s
Average wait for a solo block = about 17.5 years
Chance of at least one block in a year = about 5.5%
Same machine in a pool: about $41.54 a day in Bitcoin, before power
Even one of the most powerful Bitcoin miners on sale today would wait about 18 years on average to win alone. In a pool, it earns about $42 a day at today's numbers instead.
How long would one Bitcoin miner wait for a solo block?
Average years until a solo block (shorter bar = better odds)
OneMiners calculation: network at 1,069 EH/s (mempool.space, 7-day average, 27 October 2026). Averages only: a block can come much sooner or much later.
What if you had a whole farm?
This is where it gets interesting. More machines means more tickets, so the yearly chance climbs fast. Here is the chance of finding at least one solo block within a year:
What is the chance of a solo block within one year?
Percent chance of at least one block in 12 months (longer bar = better)
OneMiners calculation, network hashrate as above. Real results vary with luck and with network growth.
A farm of 100 water-cooled machines has about a 94% chance of a block in a year, but even then the timing is random. That is why even large mining companies use pools or run their own. Predictable income pays the power bill. Luck does not.
Why this is good news for Bitcoin
Solo wins are a nice reminder of something important: Bitcoin mining is open to everyone. There is no permission, no account and no favouritism. Every guess from a home miner counts exactly as much as a guess from a big company. Small solo miners also add a little more decentralisation, because they choose the transactions in their own blocks.
Should you try solo mining?
For fun, with a small home miner? Sure, if you see it as a lottery ticket and the power cost is money you are happy to spend.
For income? No. A pool pays you every day, so you can cover electricity and plan ahead.
Power price matters most. A home tariff around 13 cents per kWh is about 2.5 times the 5.2 cent hosting price at OneMiners. Try your own numbers in the profitability calculator.
Want to know more first? Read our 10 Bitcoin mining myths, checked and how Bitcoin mining works.
Antminer S23 Hyd 3U 1.16P$28,399Hashrate1,160 TH/sEfficiency9.50 J/THPower draw11,020 WBreak-even power$0.157/kWhNet/day at 5.20c$27.79View on OneMiners
Antminer S23 Hyd 580T$12,299Hashrate580 TH/sEfficiency9.50 J/THPower draw5,510 WBreak-even power$0.157/kWhNet/day at 5.20c$13.89View on OneMiners
Antminer S21 200T$907Hashrate200 TH/sEfficiency17.60 J/THPower draw3,520 WBreak-even power$0.085/kWhNet/day at 5.20c$2.77View on OneMiners
Pool income at 5.2 cents per kWh, today's hashprice, before pool fees. Live prices on oneminers.com.
We love a good solo-block story. But when people ask us how to mine Bitcoin, our answer is the boring one that works: an efficient Bitcoin miner, a pool and cheap, stable power. OneMiners hosts your machine at 17 live locations with power from 3.6 cents per kWh on a 7-year prepaid plan, 1,964 MW of capacity and 98%+ average uptime. You own the miner. The Bitcoin goes to your own wallet.
Frequently asked questions
What is solo mining?
Mining Bitcoin alone instead of in a pool. You only get paid if your own machine finds a whole block, and then you keep almost the full reward.
How much did the solo miners win?
Each block paid the 3.125 BTC subsidy plus fees, about 3.14 BTC, or roughly $251,000 at today's price.
Can a home Bitcoin miner really find a block?
Yes, but it is rare. At 16.2 TH/s the average wait is about 1,255 years. Most home solo miners never find one.
Is pool mining better than solo mining?
For steady income, yes. A pool pays a small share every day. Solo mining pays nothing most of the time.
Does OneMiners support solo mining?
Your hosted Bitcoin miner can point to the pool of your choice. Most customers use a regular pool for daily payouts.
Prefer steady payouts to lottery tickets?
Try the calculatorSee hosting locationsSOURCES AND DATA
- Solo blocks 973,262 and 973,413, FutureBit Apollo and Solo CKPool details, 16.2 TH/s winner: Bitcoin.com News, 27 October 2026
- Network hashrate and fees per block: mempool.space, 27 October 2026
- Bitcoin price: CoinGecko, 29 October 2026
- Miner prices and specifications: OneMiners catalogue, October 2026
- Hosting prices, locations, capacity and uptime: oneminers.com/pages/hosting-centers, 29 October 2026
Michal Beno
CEO of OneMiners, the global Bitcoin mining hosting and hardware platform with 17 published hosting locations, 7-year fixed electricity contracts and a 7-year hardware warranty. He writes about the economics of industrial Bitcoin mining.
Informational only, not financial advice. Figures are a snapshot from public market data, news reports and the OneMiners catalogue as of 29 October 2026 and can change quickly. Net-per-day figures are at today's numbers, before pool fees, and are not a forecast. Crypto prices can fall as well as rise. No return is offered or implied. Do your own research.
