Solo Bitcoin Mining in 2026: Bitaxe, NerdQAxe and Your Real Odds
Solo Bitcoin Mining in 2026: Bitaxe, NerdQAxe and Your Real Odds
In July 2026 somebody running a single small device found a whole Bitcoin block. One machine, a tiny electricity bill, and the full reward. Stories like that are true, they keep happening, and they are also the most misunderstood thing in mining. Here is the real arithmetic — and why people still do it anyway.
The short answer
✓Solo mining means you keep the entire block reward if you find one, and nothing at all if you do not.
✓A single small solo miner should statistically expect to wait thousands of years for a block. That is not a typo.
✓Wins still happen regularly because tens of thousands of people are playing at once.
✓The long-run expected value of a solo miner is almost exactly what a pool would pay you — just delivered as one enormous, unlikely lump.
✓Most people who do it are buying entertainment and education, not income. Treated that way, it is honest and cheap.
Mining is a guessing competition. Every ten minutes or so, whoever guesses the winning number first gets the block reward — currently 3.125 BTC plus transaction fees. At today's price that is roughly $247,700 per block.
The choice
Two ways to take part in the same competition
Solo mining
●You guess alone and keep everything if you win.
●Almost always, you win nothing at all.
●Payouts are enormous and extremely rare.
●No pool fee.
●Emotionally: a lottery ticket that renews every ten minutes.
Pool mining
●Thousands of miners guess together and share every reward.
●You are paid for the work you contributed, whether or not you personally found it.
●Payouts are small, steady and predictable.
●A pool fee, typically a low single-digit percentage.
●Emotionally: a small wage.
How to read this chart
Same competition, same hardware, same chance of your machine finding the answer. The only difference is whether you keep the whole prize alone or share every prize with everyone.
▶Over a very long time, both approaches pay out roughly the same total.
▶The difference is entirely in the shape of the payments: one steady trickle, or one improbable flood.
▶Pool mining is not safer in the sense of earning more. It is more predictable.
Your actual odds, calculated
Here is the honest maths, using the real network as it stands today. Bitcoin's total hash rate is about 887.8 EH/s. An exahash is a billion terahashes. Blocks arrive about 144 times a day.
Your chance of finding any given block is just your share of that total. So the expected wait is: one, divided by your share, divided by 144 blocks a day.
The formula, written out
Expected years between blocks = 1 ÷ (your TH/s ÷ network TH/s) ÷ 144 ÷ 365.25. That is the whole calculation. Everything below is just that formula with real numbers in it.
Chart 1
Expected wait for one block, mining solo (years)
How to read this chart
Each column is a real device and how long, on average, it would take to find one block mining alone. The scale is years. This is an average across an enormous number of attempts, not a countdown — you could find one tomorrow, or never.
▶A NerdQAxe++ at 4.8 TH/s has an expected wait of roughly 3,517 years. A human lifetime is not the relevant unit.
▶Even a full-size Antminer S23 Hyd, one of the most powerful machines available, expects roughly 29 years solo.
▶This is why practically everyone mines in a pool. Not because pools pay more, but because nobody can wait that long for a first payment.
▶Read these as odds, not as predictions. The whole point of a lottery is that somebody wins early.
So why do people still win?
Because those numbers are per person, and there are an enormous number of people. If thirty thousand small solo miners are each waiting an expected three thousand years, the group as a whole produces a winner every few weeks. Six documented small-miner solo wins have been recorded since March 2025.
Nothing about that is a contradiction. It is exactly how a lottery works. Your personal odds are terrible and somebody wins regularly. Both statements are true at once, and confusing them is the single most common mistake people make when reading these stories.
The two truths
How both things are true at the same time
A
Your personal odds are genuinely tiny
A single small device has a share of the network measured in billionths. The expected wait really is thousands of years.
B
The group of players is very large
Tens of thousands of small solo miners are running at once, each taking their own tiny chance every ten minutes.
C
So the group produces winners regularly
Many tiny probabilities added together become a near-certainty that somebody, somewhere, wins this month.
D
But the winner is never predictable
There is no strategy, streak or 'due' effect. Every block is an independent draw with no memory of the last one.
How to read this chart
Four steps that resolve the apparent contradiction between ‘the odds are hopeless’ and ‘people keep winning’. Both are correct. They are just describing different things — one person, and the whole crowd.
▶Never reason from a headline win to your own chances. The headline exists because it is rare.
▶There is no such thing as being “due” a block. Each attempt is independent.
▶Running longer does not improve your odds per attempt. It only gives you more attempts.
Solo mining is a small machine, a small bill, and a very long wait with a very large prize at the end.
What the machines really are
Three very different things get called "solo miners", and mixing them up costs money.
Four things people call “solo miners”
Device
Typical hash rate
What it actually is
Honest verdict
NerdMiner (ESP32)
about 55 KH/s
A microcontroller doing the sum in software.
An educational toy. Genuinely fun, effectively zero chance.
Bitaxe Gamma
roughly 1.0–1.3 TH/s, 15–21 W
An open-source single-chip miner using a real ASIC chip.
A real miner, tiny scale. The classic lottery ticket.
NerdQAxe++
4.8 TH/s
A multi-chip open-source board, several times a Bitaxe.
The serious end of hobby solo mining.
Full-size ASIC
110–1,350 TH/s
Industrial hardware, normally pointed at a pool.
Bought for steady production, not for lottery odds.
A NerdMiner and a NerdQAxe++ differ by a factor of roughly ninety thousand in hash rate, despite the similar names. Check the specification, not the branding.
One useful sanity check. A NerdQAxe++ at 4.8 TH/s produces, on average, about $0.19 a day of expected value at today's price and difficulty. Mining it in a pool pays roughly that, steadily. Mining it solo pays nothing for years and then, with luck, everything at once. The long-run total is the same. Only the shape changes.
Getting the most from a small miner
Two questions come up constantly on the forums: hash rate dropping after a power cycle, and voltage readings that do not match the setting. Here is the practical guidance.
1Expect a drop after a restart, then check thermals. Small boards throttle when they get hot. If hash rate is lower after a power cycle, temperature is the first suspect — not a fault.
2Dashboard voltage is not always core voltage. Many boards report an input or rail voltage that is deliberately higher than the core voltage you set. A reading of about 2.3 V when you set 1.0 V is usually the board telling you about a different point in the circuit, not a fault.
3Change one thing at a time. Frequency, then voltage, then fan curve. Give each change a full hour to settle before judging it.
4Log your baseline before tuning. Note the stock hash rate, power draw and temperature. Without a baseline you cannot tell improvement from noise.
5Do not chase the last few percent. On a lottery device, a 5% hash rate gain changes an expected wait of three thousand years into an expected wait of two thousand eight hundred and fifty. It is not the point.
Should you do it?
A fair chance, renewed every ten minutes, for as long as you leave it running.
Honest answer
When solo mining makes sense, and when it does not
Do not solo mine if
●You need the machine to produce income.
●You are counting on it to pay for itself.
●A headline win is the reason you are interested.
●You would be upset by earning nothing for years, which is the likely outcome.
Solo mining is a good idea if
●You want to learn how Bitcoin actually works, hands on.
●The purchase price is money you are comfortable treating as spent.
●You like the idea of a genuinely fair, tiny chance renewing every ten minutes.
●You want a real node and miner in your home for their own sake.
How to read this chart
Two honest columns. This is not a coded way of saying no. Small solo mining is one of the most interesting things a person can do with a hundred-odd currency units — provided you are honest with yourself about which column you are in.
▶If income is the goal, a pool with the same hardware pays the same expected amount, steadily.
▶If income at scale is the goal, that is a different conversation about efficient hardware and cheap power.
▶If learning and a fair long shot are the goal, this is genuinely excellent value.
And if the small machine turns into an interest in the bigger version, the change is mostly about electricity price rather than luck. That is what the hosting network is for — 20 sites averaging $0.0480 per kWh on fixed multi-year rates.
From lottery ticket to real production
If the hobby turns into a plan, the two things that decide it are efficient hardware and a low fixed power rate.
What are my real odds of solo mining a Bitcoin block?
With a 4.8 TH/s device against a network of about 887.8 EH/s, the expected wait is roughly 3,517 years. With a 1.2 TH/s Bitaxe it is around 14,066 years. Those are averages, not countdowns — an early win is possible, just very unlikely.
Is solo mining better than pool mining?
Neither is better in total. Over a long enough period both pay roughly the same. Solo gives you a tiny chance of an enormous payout; a pool gives you a small, steady one. Choose the shape you actually want.
Why do people keep winning blocks with tiny machines then?
Because tens of thousands of people are playing at once. Each individual chance is minuscule, but added together the group produces a winner every few weeks. That says nothing about your personal odds.
What is the difference between a NerdMiner and a NerdQAxe++?
Roughly ninety thousand times the hash rate, despite the similar names. A NerdMiner is an ESP32 microcontroller doing about 55 KH/s and is an educational device. A NerdQAxe++ runs at 4.8 TH/s using real ASIC chips.
My hash rate dropped after unplugging the miner. Is it broken?
Usually not. Check temperature first — small boards throttle when hot, and a restart can change airflow or fan behaviour. Restore your baseline settings, let it run an hour, then compare against the figures you recorded before.
Why does my dashboard show a higher voltage than I set?
Because it is often measuring a different point in the circuit. An input or rail voltage reading of around 2.3 V while the core voltage is set to 1.0 V is normal on several boards. Check what your specific dashboard field actually reports before changing anything.
Where these numbers come from
Bitcoin network hash rate 887.8 EH/s and difficulty 125.81T: mempool.space, 27 August 2026.
Bitcoin price $79,264: CoinGecko, 27 August 2026.
Block 957,382 solo win, July 2026, via Public Pool: news.bitcoin.com.
Documented small-miner solo wins since March 2025 and device specifications: millionminer.com solo mining guide, 2miners.com, bt-miners.com.
NerdQAxe++ specification and price: live OneMiners catalogue, 27 August 2026.
Odds are calculated as 1 / (device share of network hash rate) / 144 blocks per day.
Disclaimer
This article is for information and education only. It is not financial advice. Mining results change with the Bitcoin price, network difficulty, your electricity rate and your hardware. Numbers shown are examples from public data on the date of writing, not a promise of any result. Always do your own research.
