Bitcoin prices move 20% more often than most people expect. So what does a drop like that actually do to a Bitcoin miner? We ran the numbers on six real machines, and found the one figure that decides who keeps mining.
By Michal Beno, CEO, OneMiners30 October 2026
A Bitcoin miner's income moves one for one with the Bitcoin price: if Bitcoin drops 20%, the miner earns 20% less in dollars. The power bill does not move at all. So a drop hurts most where power is expensive. At today's numbers, an Antminer S23 Hyd on 5.2 cent power keeps about $13.84 a day, and still keeps $9.70 after a 20% fall. On a 13 cent home tariff, the same machine drops to a loss of $0.62 a day. The key number is the break-even Bitcoin price: for the S23 Hyd at 5.2 cents it is about $26,513.
$79,874
Bitcoin price, 27 October 2026
$35.72
earned per PH/s per day today
$26,513
break-even Bitcoin price, S23 Hyd at 5.2 cents
$66,281
break-even, same miner at 13 cents
CoinGecko and mempool.space, 27 October 2026. OneMiners calculation, block subsidy only, before pool fees. Not a forecast.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Why a price drop hits miners harder than holders
If you hold Bitcoin and the price falls 20%, your coins are worth 20% less. If you mine Bitcoin, you have a second number to watch: your costs. A miner earns Bitcoin every day and pays for electricity every day. Revenue goes down with the price. The electricity bill does not.
THE FORMULA
Revenue per day = TH/s x hashprice per TH
Power per day = watts / 1,000 x 24 x price per kWh
Kept per day = revenue - power
Break-even Bitcoin price = today's price x power per day / revenue per day
Hashprice is what one unit of hashrate earns per day. Today it is about $35.72 per PH/s (or $0.0357 per TH/s), using block rewards only. It moves in a straight line with the Bitcoin price, as long as difficulty and fees stay the same.
Worked example 1: the Antminer S23 Hyd, hosted
The Antminer S23 Hyd 580T makes 580 TH/s and uses 5,510 watts (9.5 J/TH). At today's numbers it earns about $20.72 a day. At OneMiners' 5.2 cent price for online-ordered miners, power costs $6.88 a day. Now we push the Bitcoin price down:
How much does the S23 Hyd keep as Bitcoin falls?
US dollars kept per day after power, at 5.2 cents per kWh
Today, $79,874
Bitcoin -10%, $71,887
Bitcoin -20%, $63,899
Bitcoin -30%, $55,912
After a 20% drop the S23 Hyd still keeps $9.70 a day. That is a 30% smaller margin from a 20% smaller price, because the power bill stayed the same. Even at minus 30%, it is still above water.
Worked example 2: the same miner on home power
Now put the same S23 Hyd on a typical 13 cent home tariff. Power now costs $17.19 a day. It keeps $3.53 today, $1.45 after a 10% drop, and a loss of $0.62 after a 20% drop. In other words, the home miner starts losing money before the price falls 20%. Its break-even Bitcoin price is about $66,281, only 17% below today.
How far can Bitcoin fall before the S23 Hyd stops paying?
Break-even Bitcoin price by power price (shorter bar = safer)
OneMiners calculation at difficulty 140.6T, block subsidy only, before pool fees. Bitcoin was $79,874 on 27 October 2026.
Break-even Bitcoin price for six real Bitcoin miners
Here is the same test for six machines. Each number is the Bitcoin price where the miner's revenue only just covers its electricity. Compare it with today's $79,874: the bigger the gap, the more room the machine has.
Break-even Bitcoin price, by power price
Antminer S23 318T
Antminer S21 Pro 245T
Antminer S21 200TOneMiners calculation at today's difficulty, block subsidy only, before pool fees and hardware cost. Specifications and prices: OneMiners catalogue, 27 October 2026.
At 5.2 cents every machine on the list survives a 20% drop (to $63,899), most with plenty of room. At 13 cents even the best machines break even near $65,927, only 17% below today, and the air-cooled S21 generation already loses money at today's price. See 14 models ranked by break-even power price for the other way to read the same numbers.
What happens next: the network fights back
A price drop starts a chain reaction. Miners with expensive power or old machines switch off. Fewer machines means blocks come slower. About every two weeks, difficulty adjusts down to bring blocks back to 10 minutes. That gives every remaining miner a bigger share of the coins.
Bitcoin price falls
Every miner's dollar income falls by the same per cent.
Weak miners switch off
Old machines and expensive power stop first, because they lose money first.
Difficulty falls
At the next adjustment the network makes mining easier.
Survivors earn more coins
Miners still running get a larger share of each day's ~450 new Bitcoin.
It also works the other way. Right now difficulty is expected to rise about 6.3% around 29 October. If Bitcoin fell 20% and difficulty rose as expected, the hosted S23 Hyd would keep about $8.72 a day. Still positive, but a reminder that both numbers move. More in what the 29 October difficulty jump means.
Four ways to make a Bitcoin miner drop-proof
Choose efficiency. Lower J/TH means a lower break-even price. Check the J/TH before the price tag.
Fix your power price. A 7-year fixed rate means your biggest cost cannot rise when the market falls.
Know your break-even Bitcoin price. Write it down before you buy. If it is close to today's price, the machine has no safety margin.
Do not mine at home on a variable tariff. It is the setting where a 20% drop turns into a daily loss. Compare hosting costs.
Sealminer A4 Ultra Hyd - 886 TH/s
Break-even about $26,371 at 5.2 cents.
View miner
Antminer S23 Hyd - 580 TH/s
Break-even about $26,513 at 5.2 cents.
View miner
Antminer S21 XP+ Hyd - 500 TH/s
Break-even about $30,827 at 5.2 cents.
View minerNobody controls the Bitcoin price. You can control your power price and your machine's efficiency, and those two set your break-even point. OneMiners offers power from 3.6 cents per kWh on a 7-year prepaid plan and 5.2 cents for online-ordered Bitcoin miners, across 17 live locations with 98%+ average uptime. When the market drops 20%, that is the difference between a smaller margin and a daily loss.
Frequently asked questions
What happens to Bitcoin miners when the price drops?
Their dollar income falls by the same per cent, while power costs stay the same, so margins shrink faster than the price.
What is a miner's break-even Bitcoin price?
The Bitcoin price at which a machine's daily revenue only just covers its electricity. Below it, the machine runs at a loss.
Do miners switch off when Bitcoin falls?
Miners with old machines or expensive power often do. Then difficulty adjusts down and the remaining miners earn more coins.
Which Bitcoin miners survive a crash?
Efficient ones on cheap power. At 5.2 cents per kWh, an S23 Hyd breaks even near $26,513.
Does this include the cost of the machine?
No. These are running costs only. Payback on the hardware is a separate calculation, which the profitability calculator also shows.
You cannot fix the Bitcoin price. You can fix your power price.
See hosting locationsTry the calculatorSOURCES AND DATA
- Bitcoin price: CoinGecko, 27 October 2026
- Difficulty, retarget estimate and hashrate: mempool.space, 27 October 2026
- Miner prices and specifications: OneMiners catalogue, 27 October 2026
- Hosting prices, locations and uptime: oneminers.com/pages/hosting-centers, 27 October 2026
Michal Beno
CEO of OneMiners, the global Bitcoin mining hosting and hardware platform with 17 published hosting locations, 7-year fixed electricity contracts and a 7-year hardware warranty. He writes about the economics of industrial Bitcoin mining.
Informational only, not financial advice. Figures are a snapshot from public market data, news reports and the OneMiners catalogue as of 27 October 2026 and can change quickly. Net-per-day figures are at today's numbers, before pool fees, and are not a forecast. Crypto prices can fall as well as rise. No return is offered or implied. Do your own research.
