Bitcoin's network is about to make mining roughly 6% harder, the second big jump in two weeks. Here is what difficulty is, why it keeps climbing, and what the change actually does to one Bitcoin miner's day, in plain numbers.
By Michal Beno, CEO, OneMiners26 October 2026
Around 29 October 2026, Bitcoin's mining difficulty is expected to rise about 6%, from 140.6T to roughly 149T. That is the second jump of about 6% in two weeks. Each Bitcoin miner will earn about 6% less Bitcoin for the same work. At today's price, one PH/s of mining power would earn about $34 a day, down from about $40 at the start of October. Bitcoin miners with efficient hardware and cheap, fixed power barely notice it. Miners paying home electricity prices feel it straight away.
+6.1%
expected difficulty change, ~29 Oct
149T
difficulty after the change
1,084 EH/s
network hashrate, 7-day average
$34
hashprice after the change, per PH/s per day
mempool.space and CoinGecko, 26 October 2026. Hashprice is block subsidy only, at a Bitcoin price of $80,382. The estimate moves with every block until the adjustment.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
What is Bitcoin mining difficulty, in one minute?
Bitcoin is designed to add a new block about every 10 minutes, whatever the number of machines mining it. Difficulty is the setting that keeps that pace. Every 2,016 blocks, roughly every two weeks, the network checks how fast the last blocks came. If they came too fast, because more Bitcoin miners joined, difficulty goes up. If they came too slow, it goes down.
Right now blocks are arriving every 9 minutes 26 seconds on average, faster than the 10-minute target. That is why the next adjustment points up. For a single miner it means simple maths: when difficulty rises 6%, the same machine finds about 6% fewer coins. Our hashrate explainer goes deeper on how the network measures this.
Why is difficulty rising so fast?
More machines are switching on. Total network hashrate climbed back above 1 zettahash per second in the week to 22 October, and new, more efficient Bitcoin miners keep arriving from manufacturers. The last four adjustments tell the story:
How much harder did mining get each time?
Difficulty change at each adjustment, per cent (longer bar = harder)
Source: mempool.space difficulty history, 26 October 2026. The 29 October figure is an estimate. The 3 October change was -0.03%, close to zero.
Bitcoin's price did not keep up. It traded near $80,400 on 26 October, below the $83,000 of a week earlier. When difficulty rises and the price drifts, hashprice falls. Hashprice is the amount one PH/s of mining power earns per day: about $40 on 3 October, $36 on 18 October, $36 today and about $34 after the adjustment if the price stays where it is.
What does one PH/s of mining earn per day?
Hashprice, US dollars per PH/s per day (longer bar = more revenue)
3 and 18 October as reported by Bitcoin.com News and CryptoTicker. 26 October and the estimate: OneMiners calculation from mempool.space and CoinGecko data, block subsidy only, Bitcoin at $80,382.
What does a 6% jump do to one Bitcoin miner?
Take one popular machine, the Antminer S23 Hyd 580T. It uses about 5,510 watts. At today's difficulty it brings in about $20.85 a day. After the adjustment, at the same Bitcoin price, that drops to about $19.65. The power bill does not change, so the whole loss comes out of the margin.
Same miner, different power price
Antminer S23 Hyd 580T, US dollars kept per day after power, after the 29 October change
OneMiners calculation at difficulty 149.2T (estimate) and Bitcoin at $80,382, block subsidy only, before pool fees. Not a forecast. Power price from oneminers.com/pages/hosting-centers, 26 October 2026.
The difference is the power price. At 5.2 cents per kWh the S23 Hyd keeps about $12.77 a day after power. At a 13 cent home tariff it keeps about $2.45. Try your own numbers in the OneMiners profitability calculator.
Which Bitcoin miners still pay their power bill?
A simple way to judge any Bitcoin miner is its break-even electricity price: the most it can pay per kWh before power eats all the revenue. The formula is: break-even = hashprice per TH divided by (24 x J/TH / 1,000). Here it is for common models after the adjustment:
How expensive can electricity get before each miner stops paying?
Break-even power price after 29 October, US cents per kWh (longer bar = safer)
OneMiners calculation at the estimated post-adjustment hashprice, Bitcoin at $80,382, block subsidy only, before pool fees. Efficiency from manufacturer specs.
Every current model stays far above the 5.2 cent online-ordered hosting price at OneMiners, and even further above the 3.6 cent 7-year prepaid price. The machines that get squeezed are the 2022 generation on expensive power. Our full break-even ranking of 14 Bitcoin miners has more models.
Antminer S23 Hyd - 580 TH/s
9.5 J/TH, water-cooled. The machine in our worked example.
View miner
Sealminer A4 Ultra Hyd - 886 TH/s
9.45 J/TH, among the most efficient Bitcoin miners on sale.
View miner
Antminer S21 XP+ Hyd - 500 TH/s
11.05 J/TH water-cooled, a lower entry price.
View minerWhat to watch after 29 October
The final number. The estimate changes with every block. Check mempool.space on Thursday evening, UTC.
The Bitcoin price. A price move of 6% cancels the whole difficulty change, in either direction.
Transaction fees. Fees add to the block subsidy. A busy mempool lifts hashprice even if difficulty rises.
Old machines switching off. If hashprice keeps falling, older Bitcoin miners on expensive power turn off, and the adjustment after this one could be smaller.
Difficulty only goes one way over the long run, because the network keeps growing. That is why OneMiners builds its offer around the one number a miner can fix: the power price. Hosting starts from 3.6 cents per kWh on a 7-year prepaid plan, across 17 live locations and 1,964 MW of capacity, with 98%+ average uptime. When difficulty jumps 6%, a miner on cheap, fixed power loses a few dollars of margin. A miner on a home tariff can lose the whole margin.
Frequently asked questions
When is the next Bitcoin difficulty adjustment?
At block 973,728, expected around 29 October 2026. mempool.space estimated a rise of about 6.1% on 26 October.
Why does Bitcoin difficulty go up?
Because more mining power joined the network and blocks came faster than every 10 minutes. Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks to bring the pace back.
Does higher difficulty mean less profit?
Each Bitcoin miner earns fewer coins for the same work, so yes, unless the Bitcoin price or fees rise. Power costs stay the same.
Is Bitcoin difficulty at an all-time high?
Not yet. After this change it would be about 149T, still below the record of 156T from October 2025.
What is a good electricity price for Bitcoin mining?
After this adjustment, current models break even between about 8 and 15 cents per kWh. Prices well below that leave room for future difficulty rises.
Difficulty will keep rising. Your power price does not have to.
See hosting locationsTry the calculatorSOURCES AND DATA
- Difficulty, retarget estimate, hashrate and adjustment history: mempool.space, 26 October 2026
- Bitcoin price: CoinGecko, 26 October 2026
- 16 October +5.92% change and hashprice of $40.03 (3 October) and $36.23 (18 October): Bitcoin.com News and CryptoTicker, October 2026
- Other estimates of the 29 October change (4.8% to 6.44%): TokenPost and CryptoTicker, 25 to 26 October 2026
- Hashrate above one zettahash: NewsBTC, citing BlocksBridge research, October 2026
- OneMiners power prices, locations, capacity and uptime: oneminers.com/pages/hosting-centers, 26 October 2026
Michal Beno
CEO of OneMiners, the global Bitcoin mining hosting and hardware platform with 17 published hosting locations, 7-year fixed electricity contracts and a 7-year hardware warranty. He writes about the economics of industrial Bitcoin mining.
Informational only, not financial advice. Figures are a snapshot from public market data, news reports and the OneMiners catalogue as of 26 October 2026 and can change quickly. Net-per-day figures are at today's numbers, before pool fees, and are not a forecast. Crypto prices can fall as well as rise. No return is offered or implied. Do your own research.
